New trends on urban goods movement modelling: proximity delivery versus shopping trips

In this paper, a modelling framework to complete the recent scientific works on urban goods modelling is proposed. More precisely, we introduce a substitution procedure that estimates the number of trips and the corresponding travelled distances for shopping drive, home delivery and reception points' strategies. Moreover, an appraisal of scenarios is proposed in order to study how these three new forms of proximity delivery services impact on the overall urban goods movement distribution. Starting from four extreme situations, we introduce more realistic scenarios in order to find a suitable combination of delivery strategies. All the scenarios are simulated using the proposed framework, and the main traffic issues related to e-commerce distribution channel are discussed. The best realistic combination promotes the joint usage of home deliveries and proximity reception points and allows a reduction of about 13% of the road occupancy rates in urban areas.